Active flipping an item without a Price Check

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Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by [ADMIN] Billious on 2/7/2012, 12:32 pm

Active flipping an item without a Price Check

WARNING: All prices within are out of date and are used for explaination purposes only!


With a recent hidden update by Jagex, a small group of items now have a buy limit of 1 per 4 hours within the GE. They are the 6 spirit shields (Elysian, Divine, Spectral, Arcane, Blessed, and plain Spirit Shield), Holy Elixir, all of the spirit shield's sigils Bandos (Chestplate, Tassets, Boots), and Armadyl (Helm, Chestplate, Chainskirt). I have personally verified every item listed.

This is NOT a guide about flipping spirit shields. You can use the friends chat "Nex n SS" to get prices. And there are other great guides around that have already covered these. That doesn't mean the principle here can't be used there too, it's just risky as the prices are likely to change before you find your prices if used without the FC. However it can be used on most items but it's just a slow way. I've found it great for items like ranger boots, robin hood hats, the Bandos/Armadyl armours mentioned earlier, most of the lesser 2 limit items (not rares without "R Quark" FC) and even the Blessed Spirit Shield. This is my first guide so I hope you find it useful.

This started with the Bandos/Armadyl armours limit change to 1/4hrs, but can be used on almost any item. No fancy price checking, just old fashioned haggling against the GE that just says I buy or leaves you hanging. I'll start by explaining how I first managed it after the update.


#1- First of all you need to find a lowball figure. You want your initial buy price to be way under just incase its lost a mill more than you expect. Also you might get a bargin from a panic seller. Same applies with an over high sell. Most players want the item or the cash immediately and so they quite often buy at a high price to get it instantly or sell low for the instant cash (thanks for the reminder Spunq). The thing is your going to raise it little by little until you get a buy. Now I had my price checks written down from the last couple days before the change on these items so I had an idea where to start. So log all buys/sells with all your regular flipping items for future reference. The more you know like the last margin you got, the better you can gauge the price. If you know nothing at all then check the GE price and halve it to be safe. You can always come up for a buy, but you cant come down if you started too high. Ok so lets look at how I flipped my first BCP after the update.


My Records of price checks (partial month, buy high/sell cheap)

1st June----------12.42m--------12.4m ---------11pm
6th June--------- 12.279m------12.24m---------7:30am
14th June--------12.034m------11.951m -------7.30pm
24th June--------13.747m------13.717m -------7pm
25th June--------14.169m------14.131m--------7pm
26th June--------14.397m------14.306m--------1am
26th June--------15.96m--------15.821m-------3.30pm
27th June--------16.25m--------15.432m-------7pm
**************New Limit 1/4hr****************
---------------------buy -----------sell
30th June--------12.5m---------12.75m---------4.30am
30th June--------12.25m.in-----13.25m---------10am
30th June--------11.75m--------12.9m ---------2.30pm


So from everything above the line had a 10/4hr limit and was a price check, everything below the line is an actual buy and sell with a limit of 1. After hearing the news from my mentors, SM Just and Millsy, I realised that the sudden rise over the couple of days before would be pretty much wiped out by this news if not drop further. Being ever so careful I initially dropped my buy price by 2m below the price at the start of the month. About 10m. I can see it was overkill now but it worked and was safe.

#2 I slowly raising the price at first by 250k at a time then slowing down to 100k-150k a time at around 11.75m till it bought.

#3 Once I had bought it at 12.5m I added 1.5m and tried to sell it (@14m), no luck. From there I basically did the same thing as I did buying it only in reverse and faster just incase the GE updated or it dropped too fast. I lowered it by 250k a couple of times, then 100-150k at about the GE price since I didn't expect it to be over it. Looking back I went too quick, but it worked. I was only waiting like 1-2 mins before changing prices, while thats ok when you know your way over and just hoping for the big win, as you get closer to your buy price take a little more time like 3-5mins or more.

BCP Flips on the 30th June (Sorry lost the first flip of 250k)
Spoiler:

BCP Flip on the 2nd July (getting used to it a little now)
Spoiler:
So in brief

1-Find a lowball price. The lower you start, the less likely you are to pay too much, it's just way slower. Also you may get a bargin from a panic seller. If it's too long you could be better off flipping something else thats faster, but at least you learn how this works and make a profit. Any profit is good profit. If you have no idea of price then halve the GE price. If still unsure then take more off, however in most cases this is not needed.

2-Raise your buy price bit by bit until you get a buy. Remember you have all the time in the world to buy it and you want the best price (just dont be silly and wait all day as you may never get your item).

3-Start high when selling you might catch a freak flip or urgent buyer, but lower your price fairly quickly (every 2-5 mins or so) until you start getting close to your buy. Take a bit more time the closer you get to you buying price as you want a margin after all the effort (10 mins should be more than enought for an active flip). But be aware that crashing items can catch you out so don't take too long.

4-Keep a log. Your own buys and sells are the best way of keeping tabs on these prices. Times will also help when you have larger logs. You may find a good time of day to buy and not sell till another time of the day to increase your margins.


Do's-                Take your time buying. There is no reason to rush the buy as you want to get it at a good price.
               Start to buy way low/sell way high for safety and bigger margins.
               Shrink the amount you change the price by when lowering/raising a number of times as you get closer to the middle or buy price. This will give you a better chance at a good margin.
               Always keep logs of buy/sells as future price guide. Your price yesterday is still more up to date then any ge graph.


Don'ts-         Hold on too long at very high price.
               Hold stock too long period unless both the buy and sell are over the ge price. If both prices are over chances are it will go up in value,
               Raise buy price too fast (big jumps)


Risks-               You underestimate how low price is.
               The GE updates with a lower price.
               Both of these can be expensive so be as careful as you can.



So in the end it's just common sense, a little patience and building up a knowledge of the items. I think haggling in Bali was easier but this is still fun. The margins in the future may shrink to a size where this becomes a waste of time and GE space for the items mentioned. However with talk of gloves and boots for these sets, which will most likely suffer the same trade limit, I expect to see many more items at this new limit. Once the doors open....the Jagex gets out.


Edit: As pointed out by NT1 exaggerated Bandos/Arma prices can be found from street merchants on W2 north-west corner of the GE. Everyone wants a bargin or a bigger sale here, so keep that in mind if using them as a price guide.


Last edited by Billious on 12/8/2012, 2:51 am; edited 34 times in total

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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Bom on 2/7/2012, 12:37 pm

This is a nicely laid out guide and is very informative - deserves a rep from me Smile
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Spunq on 2/7/2012, 12:38 pm

A tip would be to add panic selling, as people won't be able to sell and will lower the sell price alot to get rid of it in a panic, other then that great guide Billious, +Rep!
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by CrisoDer on 2/7/2012, 12:40 pm

Excelent Guide!
+reped! Very Happy
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by mypet tr0ll on 2/7/2012, 12:44 pm

Excellent guide Billious, you've outlined some really good ideas and I use this method as well. + rep
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Lord Tulio on 2/7/2012, 1:02 pm

Nice guide, will surely use this! +rep
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Fatal on 2/7/2012, 2:35 pm

Excellent!

+rep mate
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by NT1 on 2/7/2012, 2:41 pm

Great guide, I've also found that going to w2 ge helps a lot. Nw ge (opposite side of Spirit Tree/Dragon Dyce) is where people buy/sell/lend d claws/bcp and tassys/other combat stuff. I just stand there and walk around until I see people advertising the price. This helps get a general idea of the prices. Razz
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by xPLUR on 8/7/2012, 5:02 am

Nice! (:

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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Ryan5646 on 12/7/2012, 3:22 am

Thanks! Surprised very very nice guide worked for me xD. Would rep if i could!

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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by TeamShades on 12/7/2012, 4:08 pm

Awesome thanks +rep
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by p0wndude21 on 13/7/2012, 1:20 pm

nice guide

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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by [ADMIN] Billious on 20/7/2012, 1:04 am

Edited the post a little and the margins have changed a bit since post. Still getting around 300k a flip on BCP but used to get that on 10 on average or more. Also tried ranger boots and work much the same, 300k margin atm.

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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Mégas Aléxandros on 20/7/2012, 9:52 am

Pretty good! And helpful.
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Zombeh on 21/7/2012, 1:31 am

Great Guide Bill, +rep
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Daylend on 21/7/2012, 2:49 am

Really informative guide. Can't wait to try this out. +rep. Very Happy
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by ikr1 on 21/7/2012, 3:41 am

Thank you it will help a lot.
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by puremage111 on 12/8/2012, 6:15 am

hell great guide Very Happy

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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by mypet tr0ll on 12/8/2012, 1:14 pm

Moved to the rated part. Gratz Razz Excellent guide
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Mr Kennedy on 15/8/2012, 6:09 pm

Great guide Billious, nicely put Smile
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by Mr Leviathax on 16/8/2012, 11:03 pm

This method is really useful without a fc that gives out the pcs of the items i personally use this method and i agree it has some risks sometimes but its really efective.

+rep this guide Smile
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by waimeabeatz on 24/9/2012, 1:00 pm

Sick guide, will definitely use this to make some more moonies Smile
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by lulu2199 on 25/9/2012, 4:30 pm

DO you think that remembering sell/buy prices over a day is still worth it? THey change quite fast...
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Re: Active flipping an item without a Price Check

Post by [ADMIN] Billious on 25/9/2012, 7:51 pm

Most items don't change price that fast. At times when a lot of people are online and trading the same items, margins tend to get smaller as people undercut each other. A lot of items have pretty predictable waves over time and if you have a history of the prices you can tell when to active flip or in-active/invest in them. But if you mean over the course of one day then it is possible on many items to find a time when they are at their cheapest daily, then later on they may tend to sell higher. At these times the margins may be too small to active flip, but so many items have predictable patterns.

Armadyl Battlestaff

10th June---9.32m-----9.235m---9am
---------------9.494m----9.376m----1.30pm
---------------9.299m----9.224m----6.30pm
14th June---11.769m--10.2m----6.30pm
---------------11.65m----11.518m----11pm
15th June---11.727m---11.641m----4am
16th June---10.729m---10.67m------6am
---------------10.649m---10.527m----11am
---------------11.19m----10.901m----8.30pm
17th June---11.150m---11.001m----2am
---------------11.106m---11.036m----9.30am
---------------11.027m---10.764m----2pm
18th June---11.029m---10.824m----10am
---------------11.879m---11.459m----4.30pm
---------------11.589m---11.539m----10.30pm

As you can see the price was rising at this time. The orange is the cheapest time to buy over those days. With one exception, the afternoon my time was the cheapest time to buy each day. The best time to sell seems to be random here. So if I was to invest in these back then I would buy in the afternoon and sell at a price I set. Since this is a time when less players are active, this time also had the better margins in general, but not all the time. Other items will have a predictable time when the sell price is at the highest. Some may have both. Unfortunately this was the best I could find straight away, so not the perfect example. But basically the more you know about the items the more profit you will make. Knowledge is power.

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Thanx for this guide

Post by iVal on 29/9/2012, 7:48 pm

thanx alot for this guide i will sure use this ts nice to see people sharing there guides to the public

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